Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B8 0xb81d…cbc9 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%42W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$17
other 42% −$2
politics 2% −$1
sports 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 29% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 25 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 30 -0.3% -9.8% 37% 3% -9.7%
all 105 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses42 / 63
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage487d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $141 $141 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $155 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $141 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $134 +$8 +6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $158 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2,185 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $336 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $136 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $285 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $145 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $175 −$2 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $132 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $287 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $450 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $153 +$19 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $113 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $214 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $112 +$10 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $156 −$58 -37%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $171 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $153 +$1 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $1,026 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $59 $0 +0%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $151 −$6 -4%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5 Mar 17 $30 $0 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) Mar 17 $167 $0 +0%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 16 $163 +$3 +2%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Joao Almeida win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $26 +$6 +22%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $4 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 08 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 08 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $141 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $152 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $155 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $21 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $36 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $109 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $22 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $139 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $134 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $130 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $130 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.21 · official $140.60 (match) · 406 history records