Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:46:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb821…5cdd sports 951 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,285 (-5%) realized −$2,282 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%599W / 345L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$277est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$651now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$536
14 days−$1,258
30 days−$1,497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$2,210
other 7% −$309
world 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.4% -9.9% 68% 65% -3.7%
≤30d 227 -5.6% -14.6% 64% 63% -16.4%
≤90d 670 -8.9% -17.6% 62% 62% -19.4%
all 944 -1.9% -11.2% 63% 63% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 63% -14.7%
10% -19.7% 60% -22.9%
15% -27.5% 45% -30.3%
20% -34.6% 28% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$45 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$651
Realized−$2,282
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses599 / 345
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$277
Open positions7
Markets (closed)944 / 951
History coverage233d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 944 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 81¢ 80¢ $107 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $91 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) IR Iran 79¢ 78¢ $87 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Under 70¢ 68¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-4%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $52 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 137 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$12 +57%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $8 +$13 +152%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $42 +$11 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $31 +$2 +5%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $50 +$10 +20%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $31 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $118 +$40 +34%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $18 +$12 +67%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $54 +$10 +18%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 17 $37 +$10 +27%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $461 −$13 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $360 +$123 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $158 +$102 +65%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $319 +$82 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 +$12 +73%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $42 +$10 +24%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $38 +$10 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $592 −$586 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $352 +$133 +38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 +$12 +86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$10 +52%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $126 −$125 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 +$10 +34%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $36 +$12 +32%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $52 +$12 +23%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $26 −$25 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $46 +$12 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,694 +$1,765 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $252 +$84 +33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $393 −$391 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $691 −$685 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $25 +$15 +60%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $26 −$25 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $577 −$573 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,431 +$1,282 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$11 +38%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $262 −$258 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2,016 −$2,001 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $72 +$37 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $366 −$334 -91%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $23 +$12 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $16 +$11 +70%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $29 +$11 +39%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $16 +$11 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 79¢ $88 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $201 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $52 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $92 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $108 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $62 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $56 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $20 20h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 73¢ $31 21h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $8 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $9 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 78¢ $42 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $15 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $22 22h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 83¢ $50 23h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $118 44h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $54 3d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $18 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $47 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $14 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 74¢ $448 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $461 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $106 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $53 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $120 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $120 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $120 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $159 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $159 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $83 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $650.98 · official $650.98 (match) · 1966 history records