Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb824…1ce6 world 30 markets active 2d ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$1
sports 20% $0
other 8% +$2
weather 6% $0
politics 6% +$3
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.8%
all 30 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 7% -8.7%
10% -18.7% 7% -17.5%
15% -26.6% 7% -25.4%
20% -33.8% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage471d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $69 −$2 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $27 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $22 +$2 +8%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $22 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 11 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? Mar 06 $14 $0 +3%
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $6 +$4 +72%
Senators vs. Blackhawks Mar 04 $12 −$2 -15%
Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Mar 04 $19 −$4 -23%
Indiana vs. Oregon Mar 04 $5 $0 -9%
Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Le-Moyne vs. Stonehill Mar 03 $18 +$7 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $5 43h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $2 44h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $2 44h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $15 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $11 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $34 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $34 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $28 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $35 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $35 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $35 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $36 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records