Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb826…635a crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$113 (-1%) realized +$176 · open −$289
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%28W / 25L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$437
finance 8% −$289
sports 2% +$196
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -7.4% -16.2% 53% 53% -10.8%
≤30d 53 -7.4% -16.2% 53% 53% -10.8%
≤90d 53 -7.4% -16.2% 53% 53% -10.8%
all 53 -7.4% -16.2% 53% 53% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 53% -10.8%
10% -24.3% 53% -19.3%
15% -31.6% 47% -27.1%
20% -38.3% 45% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$305 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,368
Realized+$176
Unrealized−$289
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses28 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage6d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 23¢ 19¢ $1,657 $1,368 −$289 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $304 +$196 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $510 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $511 +$231 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $615 +$370 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $308 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $619 −$600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $308 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $412 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $210 +$126 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$28 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $310 +$288 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $311 +$315 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $310 +$267 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $611 +$204 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $928 +$687 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $312 +$362 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $306 +$104 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $313 +$431 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $309 +$199 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $118 +$81 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $325 −$315 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $310 +$242 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $308 +$164 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $417 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $310 +$254 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $305 +$96 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $619 +$511 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $468 −$452 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $378 +$281 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $313 +$445 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $307 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $186 +$230 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $410 +$218 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $308 +$176 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $414 +$385 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $412 +$304 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 19¢ $1 4m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 19¢ $1 4m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 23¢ $1,004 17m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 23¢ $1 19m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 23¢ $6 19m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 23¢ $1 23m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 23¢ $1 24m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 25¢ $500 27m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 60¢ $304 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $0 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $0 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $18 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $0 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $0 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $7 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $0 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $16 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $0 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $0 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $42 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $0 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $48 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $0 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $8 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 21¢ $0 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 20¢ $0 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 19¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $510 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $511 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,368.23 · official $1,368.23 (match) · 129 history records