Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb82d…753f crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$360 (+8%) realized +$204 · open +$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$332
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 44% -5.9%
≤30d 32 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 44% -5.9%
≤90d 32 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 44% -5.9%
all 32 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 44% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 44% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 41% -14.9%
15% -37.5% 34% -23.1%
20% -43.6% 28% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$117 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage6d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 23¢ 50¢ $163 $359 +$195 (+120%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 69¢ 50¢ $138 $99 −$39 (-28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 94¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $69 +$31 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $82 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$124 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $428 +$170 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $149 −$149 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $228 +$57 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $482 +$768 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $105 −$90 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $213 +$497 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $425 −$425 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $266 +$229 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $305 −$305 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $88 +$23 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $248 +$225 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$22 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$13 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $99 −$94 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $172 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $43 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $89 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $82 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $141 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $17 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $74 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $192 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.67 · official $457.55 (match) · 273 history records