Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb831…f31c crypto 287 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,512 (-5%) realized −$3,512 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%128W / 159L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$592est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$191
crypto 32% −$2,249
other 31% −$1,988
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +20.8% +9.3% 75% 69% -2.3%
≤30d 63 -10.6% -19.1% 59% 49% -13.4%
≤90d 204 -9.2% -17.8% 48% 41% -12.9%
all 287 -12.8% -21.1% 45% 37% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 37% -15.3%
10% -28.7% 31% -23.4%
15% -35.6% 24% -30.8%
20% -41.9% 19% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$99 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,512
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses128 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$592
Open positions0
Markets (closed)287 / 287
History coverage168d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 287 Trades
no open positions (95 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$29 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $316 −$179 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $116 +$61 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$49 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$14 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $64 −$61 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$38 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $539 −$539 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $310 −$290 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $310 +$162 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $314 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $134 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $313 +$132 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $515 +$359 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $192 −$185 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 08 $146 +$42 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 08 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $104 −$90 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $309 +$165 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 08 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 08 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $527 +$474 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $229 +$274 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 08 $525 +$565 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $85 −$79 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 07 $61 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 07 $316 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $280 +$112 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $518 +$272 +53%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $136 −$133 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $365 +$28 +8%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski Jun 02 $50 +$8 +16%
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Jun 02 $91 −$90 -99%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Jan Kumstat Jun 02 $1,193 +$145 +12%
Prostejov: Maxim Mrva vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 02 $101 +$45 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $73 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1106 history records