Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb833…dfcd crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$92 (-40%) realized −$108 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-52.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -47.3% -52.3% 25% 25% -60.2%
≤30d 16 -47.3% -52.3% 25% 25% -60.2%
≤90d 16 -47.3% -52.3% 25% 25% -60.2%
all 16 -47.3% -52.3% 25% 25% -60.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.3% 25% -60.2%
10% ← realistic here -56.9% 19% -64.0%
15% -61.0% 19% -67.5%
20% -64.9% 19% -70.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -86% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 32¢ 52¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$17 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $9 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.02 · official $30.86 · 31 history records