Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb835…e4ec other 37 markets active 9h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$121 (-14%) realized −$113 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$150
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$61
other 43% −$87
tech 11% +$24
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -30.6% -37.2% 25% 25% -32.9%
≤30d 35 -25.7% -32.7% 31% 31% -26.1%
≤90d 35 -25.7% -32.7% 31% 31% -26.1%
all 35 -25.7% -32.7% 31% 31% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 31% -26.1%
10% -39.2% 26% -33.2%
15% -45.1% 26% -39.7%
20% -50.4% 20% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage8d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$20 +134%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$32 +206%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $82 −$16 -20%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 −$15 -33%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $21 −$2 -12%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $36 +$49 +134%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -9%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$11 -54%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $20 +$8 +39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $40 +$8 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $40 +$8 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 25¢ $31 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 62¢ $19 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 22h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $5 43h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 43h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 22¢ $10 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 43h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes $5 43h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 43h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 19¢ $8 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $20 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $15 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $20 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 29¢ $33 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $15 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $15 2d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) SELL Portugal 13¢ $18 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $30 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 29¢ $29 2d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $21 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $31 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 46¢ $10 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 55¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.70 · official $51.70 (match) · 79 history records