Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B8 0xb836…fa1c sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$634 (+27%) realized +$635 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$554
crypto 7% $0
other 6% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤90d 5 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 60% +3.0%
all 13 +26.1% +14.1% 85% 69% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 69% +14.8%
10% +3.2% 69% +3.9%
15% -6.8% 62% -6.2%
20% -15.9% 23% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$191 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$635
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage222d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 60¢ 60¢ $80 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 15 $63 +$30 +48%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Apr 13 $635 +$228 +36%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $316 +$319 +101%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Apr 03 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Apr 03 $300 −$300 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Mar 17 $224 +$92 +41%
Will Levante UD vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Mar 02 $155 +$69 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $154 $0 +0%
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-01-16? Jan 20 $70 +$63 +90%
Will Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? Jan 13 $62 +$29 +47%
Will Nigeria vs. Tanzania end in a draw? Dec 24 $63 +$20 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 01 $18 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5 Nov 15 $150 +$150 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $81 1h
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $63 38d
Will Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $635 74d
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $316 82d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $224 102d
Will Levante UD vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $155 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $154 151d
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-01-16? BUY No 53¢ $38 159d
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-01-16? BUY No 52¢ $32 159d
Will Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $62 165d
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $83 178d
Will Nigeria vs. Tanzania end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $63 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $18 209d
Will Sweden vs. Slovenia end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $300 217d
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5 BUY Over 50¢ $150 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.51 · official $79.51 (match) · 33 history records