Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb839…8d7e crypto 79 markets active 4d ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%39W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$19
other 30% −$18
world 25% +$8
politics 7% $0
sports 2% +$6
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -34.8% -41.0% 50% 50% -16.4%
≤30d 14 -18.6% -26.4% 50% 21% -11.7%
≤90d 75 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 35% -13.5%
all 75 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 35% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 35% -13.5%
10% -22.1% 25% -21.7%
15% -29.6% 21% -29.3%
20% -36.5% 16% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses39 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)75 / 79
History coverage61d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 58¢ 61¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +16%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 05 $8 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Jun 05 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on June 6? Jun 05 $1 $0 -20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 25 $17 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 14 $20 +$5 +22%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 13 $20 +$8 +39%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $38 +$1 +4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 28 $1 $0 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $29 +$5 +18%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 21 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 15 $3 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 14 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5AM ET Apr 14 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 14 $4 +$2 +41%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 14 $14 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 14 $26 −$19 -73%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 5AM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +47%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 14 $22 −$17 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$11 +329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$1 -44%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 14 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 14 $12 +$12 +104%
Bitcoin above 74,800 on April 14, 2AM ET? Apr 14 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 2,350 on April 14, 2AM ET? Apr 14 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 2,360 on April 14, 12AM ET? Apr 14 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $15 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 5? SELL No 92¢ $8 12d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 5? BUY No 92¢ $6 12d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 5? BUY No 92¢ $2 12d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on June 6? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 92¢ $10 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $2 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 12d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 23d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 23d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 23d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $3 26d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $2 26d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $17 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 92¢ $50 27d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 100¢ $51 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.48 · official $61.48 (match) · 340 history records