Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb83b…dc66 sports 290 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-1%) realized −$228 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%114W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$296
7 days+$498
14 days+$286
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$508
other 15% −$706
crypto 4% −$149
finance 0% +$10
world 0% +$34
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +3.8% -6.1% 51% 51% +8.7%
≤30d 205 -12.1% -20.5% 45% 45% -7.8%
≤90d 272 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 42% -10.5%
all 272 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 42% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 42% -10.5%
10% -31.9% 40% -19.0%
15% -38.5% 33% -26.9%
20% -44.5% 25% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$28 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$673
Realized−$228
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses114 / 158
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions15
Markets (closed)272 / 290
History coverage44d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $214 $228 +$14 (+7%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $67 $60 −$7 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Yes 34¢ 52¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+53%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Yes 35¢ 61¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+75%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $37 $27 −$10 (-27%)
Yasin Ayari: 1+ goals Yes 13¢ 8¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Yes 44¢ 24¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-45%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 34¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Sweden 68¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 41¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 47¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Sinners 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Yes 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals Yes 7¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 +$38 +90%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 14 $46 +$22 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $32 +$21 +64%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $54 +$52 +97%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $58 +$44 +76%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $29 +$83 +291%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 +$38 +123%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $33 −$1 -3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $69 −$67 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $37 +$31 +86%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $44 −$43 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $82 +$215 +263%
Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$3 -17%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $22 −$8 -38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $40 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $37 −$25 -68%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $63 +$88 +139%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $56 +$21 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 +$30 +114%
Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $67 +$49 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 −$48 -68%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$8 +28%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $76 −$75 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $51 +$95 +186%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 +$12 +46%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $69 −$36 -52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$24 +119%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$25 +50%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $132 −$44 -33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $28 +$18 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $22 +$16 +73%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$83 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $75 23m
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $31 1h
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $54 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 83¢ $39 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $42 3h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $69 3h
Yasin Ayari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $43 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 89¢ $53 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- BUY 7¢ $16 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $32 5h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $46 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 5h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $102 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $54 8h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 56¢ $58 8h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $112 8h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $40 10h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 25¢ $29 10h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $68 10h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 35¢ $18 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $672.87 · official $672.87 (match) · 497 history records