Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb83c…92bf crypto 351 markets active 5d ago coverage 367d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,712 (-11%) realized −$6,712 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%179W / 172L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$3,498
world 38% −$2,749
sports 2% +$133
other 1% −$474
politics 1% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +12.0% +1.3% 67% 67% -7.8%
≤30d 12 +12.0% +1.3% 67% 67% -7.8%
≤90d 22 -5.9% -14.8% 59% 59% -7.9%
all 351 -22.9% -30.3% 51% 41% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 41% -19.7%
10% -36.9% 23% -27.4%
15% -43.0% 18% -34.4%
20% -48.6% 11% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$92 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

367d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,712
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses179 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)351 / 351
History coverage367d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 351 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$81 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $143 +$52 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $206 +$120 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $120 +$117 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $69 +$48 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$96 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 11 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 11 $42 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 11 $52 +$30 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 11 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 11 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 11 $18 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 11 $54 +$21 +38%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 17 $1,133 −$1,118 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 17 $1,330 +$1,036 +78%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 17 $600 +$42 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 17 $196 −$193 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 17 $340 −$335 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 17 $31 +$93 +303%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Mar 17 $370 +$73 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 15 $360 +$167 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 14 $347 −$347 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 14 $60 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 14 $680 +$278 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 14 $100 +$54 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 13 $500 +$104 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 13 $500 +$108 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 09 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 09 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 09 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 09 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 04 $14 −$5 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $72 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $184 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $195 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $143 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $309 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $326 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $206 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $238 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $120 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $117 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $69 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $171 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $153 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $47 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1675 history records