trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +5.7% | -4.4% | 100% | 0% | -4.4% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -20.2% | -27.8% | 22% | 11% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -24.7% | -31.8% | 21% | 17% | -26.4% |
| all | 24 | -24.7% | -31.8% | 21% | 17% | -26.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.8% | 17% | -26.4% |
| 10% | -38.4% | 12% | -33.5% |
| 15% | -44.3% | 12% | -39.9% |
| 20% | -49.8% | 8% | -45.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $2,687 | $2,230 | −$457 (-17%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $415 | +$24 | +6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | Jun 11 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +11% |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | -9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? | Jun 11 | $4 | $0 | -9% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? | Jun 11 | $25 | −$16 | -62% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET | Apr 25 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? | Apr 25 | $105 | −$43 | -41% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? | Apr 24 | $390 | −$277 | -71% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | Apr 22 | $292 | +$110 | +38% |
| New pandemic in 2026? | Apr 18 | $395 | −$55 | -14% |
| Eric Swalwell arrested by May 31? | Apr 15 | $49 | −$4 | -7% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | Apr 14 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET | Apr 14 | $50 | +$33 | +66% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | Apr 14 | $80 | +$76 | +95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | Apr 14 | $37 | −$37 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Apr 14 | $275 | −$29 | -10% |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar | Apr 13 | $153 | −$79 | -52% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? | Mar 28 | $75 | −$60 | -80% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Mar 28 | $97 | −$25 | -26% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | Mar 26 | $100 | −$7 | -7% |