Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb83d…6175 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$758 (-12%) realized −$301 · open −$457
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$558
crypto 18% −$272
world 5% −$45
politics 2% −$79
sports 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.7% -4.4% 100% 0% -4.4%
≤30d 9 -20.2% -27.8% 22% 11% -9.8%
≤90d 24 -24.7% -31.8% 21% 17% -26.4%
all 24 -24.7% -31.8% 21% 17% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 17% -26.4%
10% -38.4% 12% -33.5%
15% -44.3% 12% -39.9%
20% -49.8% 8% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$39 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$2,230
Realized−$301
Unrealized−$457
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage94d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,687 $2,230 −$457 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $415 +$24 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 25 $105 −$43 -41%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 24 $390 −$277 -71%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 22 $292 +$110 +38%
New pandemic in 2026? Apr 18 $395 −$55 -14%
Eric Swalwell arrested by May 31? Apr 15 $49 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 14 $50 +$33 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 14 $80 +$76 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 14 $275 −$29 -10%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $153 −$79 -52%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Mar 28 $75 −$60 -80%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 28 $97 −$25 -26%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Mar 26 $100 −$7 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $232 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $441 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $439 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $547 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $549 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $70 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $8 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? SELL No 82¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 55¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? SELL No 65¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY No 72¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? BUY No 69¢ $4 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 81¢ $1 8d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 71¢ $2 8d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 78¢ $2 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $1 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 19¢ $9 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $10 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $23 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $346 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $522 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $170 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $209 22d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,042 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $50 55d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? SELL Yes 13¢ $62 55d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? BUY Yes 21¢ $105 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,230.17 · official $2,230.17 (match) · 139 history records