Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb83d…d142 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$1
other 32% +$1
economics 5% $0
politics 4% +$8
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 0% -9.5%
all 27 +15.1% +4.1% 48% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 4% -8.6%
10% -5.8% 4% -17.3%
15% -14.9% 4% -25.3%
20% -23.3% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage381d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $41 −$2 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $73 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $96 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $21 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $98 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $2 +$7 +416%
Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $18 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30? Jun 11 $17 $0 -1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $51 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $35 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $28 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $12 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $48 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $11 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $11 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $5 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $48 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $52 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $52 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $52 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $17 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $21 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $12 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $35 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $37 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $10 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $8 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.03 · official $51.03 (match) · 86 history records