Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb83e…9f42 other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$197 (-7%) realized −$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate56%33W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$70
14 days+$21
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$257
sports 35% +$37
crypto 11% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -11.9% -20.3% 52% 38% -4.9%
≤30d 29 -7.7% -16.5% 59% 45% -8.6%
≤90d 41 -19.8% -27.4% 51% 41% -20.3%
all 59 -13.9% -22.1% 56% 34% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 34% -17.9%
10% -29.5% 27% -25.7%
15% -36.3% 14% -32.9%
20% -42.6% 10% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$30 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses33 / 26
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage130d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $41 −$6 -14%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $77 −$76 -99%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $65 +$3 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $60 +$19 +31%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $50 +$47 +95%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -2%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $107 −$107 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $103 +$115 +112%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $95 +$8 +8%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $101 −$6 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $64 +$45 +69%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $149 +$14 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $162 +$22 +14%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $53 +$17 +32%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $85 +$25 +30%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $54 +$32 +59%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $42 +$11 +26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $120 −$78 -65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $226 +$18 +8%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: Draw at halftime? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +17%
Georgia leading at halftime? Jun 05 $18 +$4 +23%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $13 +$3 +26%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $23 −$12 -53%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $64 −$46 -72%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? Apr 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-05? Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Apr 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $82 +$61 +75%
Will Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Apr 05 $17 +$7 +39%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $13 +$5 +35%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $7 +$2 +35%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $24 +$56 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 11 $69 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 11 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 11 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2PM ET Feb 10 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 10 $6 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $35 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $77 22h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 23h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $65 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $79 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $60 23h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 29h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 42h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $50 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $51 43h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 44h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $103 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $103 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $95 2d
France leading at halftime? SELL No 50¢ $95 3d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $107 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 77¢ $109 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $64 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $163 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $149 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records