Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B8 0xb83f…e2a2 world 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%11W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 23% +$2
crypto 23% +$1
sports 18% +$2
other 16% +$5
finance 13% $0
politics 6% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 11 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$665
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses11 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage63d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $333 $333 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $332 $332 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $661 +$2 +0%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun Jun 20 $338 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 17? Jun 17 $324 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $317 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $660 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 25 above $250? Jun 04 $89 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 25 above $110? Jun 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 04 $213 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 04 $260 $0 +0%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure? May 14 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 04 $653 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $332 1h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $333 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $661 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $324 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $318 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $58 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $258 14d
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun BUY No 100¢ $338 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $660 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $213 29d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 25 above $250? BUY No 100¢ $89 29d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 25 above $110? BUY No 100¢ $98 29d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $260 29d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure? SELL No 70¢ $16 43d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure? SELL No 70¢ $18 43d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure? SELL No 70¢ $22 43d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure? BUY No 68¢ $54 43d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $653 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.15 · official $665.15 (match) · 29 history records