Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb841…a77b
crypto · 878 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$68 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$40 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses257 / 613
Open positions1
Markets (closed)870 / 878
History coverage56d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 870 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$57
14 days+$77
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$6 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$6 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$6 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$5 +181%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$5 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$40
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 84¢ $7 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +20.6% +9.1% 68% 36% +4.4%
≤30d 119 +12.9% +2.1% 66% 30% +2.5%
≤90d 870 -1.6% -10.9% 30% 24% -8.3%
all 870 -1.6% -10.9% 30% 24% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 24% -8.3%
10% -19.5% 22% -17.1%
15% -27.2% 21% -25.1%
20% -34.4% 20% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.77 · official $18.77 (match) · 1443 history records