Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:34:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb849…d2ca crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (207 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%28W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day207.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (207 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +4.2% -5.7% 62% 40% -4.2%
≤30d 45 +4.2% -5.7% 62% 40% -4.2%
≤90d 45 +4.2% -5.7% 62% 40% -4.2%
all 45 +4.2% -5.7% 62% 40% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover207.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 40% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 29% -13.4%
15% -23.0% 18% -21.8%
20% -30.5% 11% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses28 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day207.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$25 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$11 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$17 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$27 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 221 history records