Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb84c…f36f
weather · 375 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$28 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$28 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses184 / 173
Open positions24
Markets (closed)357 / 375
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day329.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 24 History 357 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 42¢ 51¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2400%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+170%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+245%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 3? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+156%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 3? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +2362%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 3? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 2? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 3? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 3? Jun 13 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 2? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -114%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 3? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$10 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 12? Jun 13 $0 $0 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 42¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL No 48¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL No 48¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 40¢ $2 27m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 38¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 222 +31.6% +19.0% 49% 35% -9.0%
≤30d 357 +27.9% +15.7% 52% 38% -7.0%
≤90d 357 +27.9% +15.7% 52% 38% -7.0%
all 357 +27.9% +15.7% 52% 38% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover329.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.7% 38% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here +4.6% 25% -15.9%
15% -5.5% 20% -24.0%
20% -14.7% 17% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.70 · official $16.84 · 3500 history records