Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb84f…f853 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-20%) realized −$31 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$95
other 17% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -67.7% -70.8% 20% 20% -62.5%
≤30d 8 -39.8% -45.5% 38% 38% -24.4%
≤90d 8 -39.8% -45.5% 38% 38% -24.4%
all 8 -39.8% -45.5% 38% 38% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.5% 38% -24.4%
10% -50.8% 25% -31.6%
15% -55.5% 25% -38.2%
20% -59.9% 25% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage24d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 62¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $32 −$22 -70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$12 +62%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $49 +$8 +17%
Hungary vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $51 −$50 -99%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $49 +$51 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $27 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 65¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 11¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $32 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 54¢ $30 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 95¢ $33 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $20 6d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 19d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 85¢ $49 19d
Hungary vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $51 19d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland SELL Finland 99¢ $100 24d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Finland 48¢ $49 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 13 history records