Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb851…0dfe weather 33 markets active 22h ago coverage 49d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,859 (+20%) realized +$5,934 · open −$2,075
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate88%28W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$595per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% +$3,364
crypto 30% +$424
politics 27% −$2,075
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+73.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +88.7% +70.7% 100% 100% +22.3%
≤30d 19 +129.3% +107.5% 79% 68% +13.5%
≤90d 32 +91.3% +73.1% 88% 72% +13.5%
all 32 +91.3% +73.1% 88% 72% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.1% 72% +13.5%
10% +56.6% 44% +2.7%
15% +41.4% 41% -7.3%
20% +27.6% 38% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late +151% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$104 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×10.11 per $1 lost it wins $10.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$4,274
Realized+$5,934
Unrealized−$2,075
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses28 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage49d
Avg bet$595
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $2,137 $4,213 +$2,075 (+97%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $2,137 $62 −$2,075 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 22 $223 +$369 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1,232 +$142 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $596 +$68 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $479 −$389 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $39 +$923 +2348%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,312 +$1,235 +94%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $62 +$53 +84%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $105 +$71 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $462 +$193 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $53 +$53 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$17 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $11 −$9 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $83 +$48 +58%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5,838 +$424 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2,296 +$267 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $116 +$24 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $126 +$34 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 13? May 13 $490 +$60 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 4? May 04 $49 +$48 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 4? May 04 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4? May 04 $155 +$98 +63%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 4? May 03 $3 +$3 +84%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on May 3? May 03 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 3? May 03 $64 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 3? May 03 $94 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 3? May 03 $90 +$61 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3? May 03 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 3? May 03 $171 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 3? May 03 $3 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $538 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $190 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $42 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $42 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $276 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $38 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $87 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $1,232 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 0¢ $1 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $559 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $2 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $11 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $10 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $2 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,274.50 · official $4,274.50 (match) · 599 history records