Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb852…8eb3 sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$115 (+5%) realized +$213 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$6
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$260
other 47% +$328
crypto 3% −$60
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -4.7% -13.8% 55% 52% -9.9%
≤30d 46 -0.9% -10.3% 57% 54% -1.9%
≤90d 58 -2.0% -11.3% 53% 50% -3.9%
all 58 -2.0% -11.3% 53% 50% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 50% -3.9%
10% -19.8% 43% -13.1%
15% -27.5% 38% -21.5%
20% -34.6% 34% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$20 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized+$213
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 27
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions23
Markets (closed)58 / 81
History coverage53d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? No 62¢ 100¢ $26 $42 +$16 (+61%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 50¢ 48¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 34¢ 32¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-7%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? No 85¢ 84¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? No 65¢ 64¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 81¢ 100¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+23%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 32¢ 99¢ $7 $21 +$14 (+210%)
Sweden leading at halftime? No 82¢ 100¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 77¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+30%)
Japan leading at halftime? No 55¢ 54¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 36¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador leading at halftime? No 34¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Curaçao 33¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 32¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 34¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? No 57¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$10 +90%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +78%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 +$6 +40%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $35 +$6 +17%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $14 +$7 +52%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $12 +$9 +73%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $34 +$6 +17%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 +$13 +172%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $12 +$9 +79%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 +$5 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$11 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $11 +$9 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 +$59 +146%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $85 +$16 +18%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $57 +$43 +75%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $64 +$37 +57%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $86 +$15 +17%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $173 +$1 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $44 +$57 +129%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $43 +$57 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $49 +$52 +105%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $58 −$58 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 +$53 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $56 +$45 +79%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $47 +$54 +114%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $70 +$31 +44%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $17 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs OLDBOYS- (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Euro May 12 $10 −$5 -48%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 08 $44 −$14 -31%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers L May 07 $48 −$6 -13%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies May 07 $8 +$2 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY No 34¢ $7 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $7 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $8 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 33¢ $7 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY No 85¢ $34 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $11 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $9 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $9 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $8 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $7 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 32¢ $13 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $28 2h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $43 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $14 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $29 2h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $12 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $26 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 82¢ $16 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $17 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $18 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $16 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $8 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $9 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $7 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 2h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $12 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.01 · official $339.10 (match) · 149 history records