Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B8 0xb853…be83 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$13 (+17%) realized +$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +34.5% +21.7% 88% 75% +19.1%
≤30d 8 +34.5% +21.7% 88% 75% +19.1%
≤90d 8 +34.5% +21.7% 88% 75% +19.1%
all 8 +34.5% +21.7% 88% 75% +19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.7% 75% +19.1%
10% +10.0% 62% +7.7%
15% -0.6% 62% -2.7%
20% -10.4% 50% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$3 +72%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$13 +132%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 $0 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 $0 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$4 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 46h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.61 · official $35.61 (match) · 18 history records