Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:50:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb858…de3f other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$197 (-8%) realized −$157 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days+$43
14 days+$124
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$336
sports 26% +$82
crypto 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 44% -5.6%
≤30d 53 +11.2% +0.6% 49% 45% -7.2%
≤90d 93 -9.8% -18.4% 38% 35% -18.2%
all 93 -9.8% -18.4% 38% 35% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 35% -18.2%
10% -26.2% 35% -26.0%
15% -33.3% 35% -33.1%
20% -39.9% 31% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$20 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$157
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 58
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage55d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $69 $29 −$40 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $133 +$4 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $58 +$26 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $182 −$112 -61%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 +$11 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$12 +152%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $19 +$9 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$12 +174%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 −$22 -53%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -60%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $66 +$46 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$24 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$52 +103%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$55 +138%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$20 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$16 +106%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +267%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +477%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$34 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +106%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$36 +176%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$31 +150%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$40 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $70 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $137 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $133 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $58 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 33¢ $70 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $57 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $24 44h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $28 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $42 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 31¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.11 · official $67.92 · 163 history records