Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:10:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B8 0xb862…aee4 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$353 (-11%) realized −$346 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$256
7 days−$508
14 days−$428
30 days−$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$43
other 41% −$343
crypto 9% −$12
world 1% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -43.4% -48.8% 29% 18% -29.8%
≤30d 61 -17.5% -25.4% 31% 25% -22.1%
≤90d 61 -17.5% -25.4% 31% 25% -22.1%
all 61 -17.5% -25.4% 31% 25% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 25% -22.1%
10% -32.5% 20% -29.6%
15% -39.0% 16% -36.4%
20% -45.0% 16% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$25 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$346
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 42
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage11d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 58¢ 56¢ $203 $196 −$7 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $184 +$14 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $22 −$9 -39%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $161 +$22 +14%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $247 −$85 -35%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $218 +$29 +13%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $110 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $222 +$2 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $191 +$21 +11%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $17 −$16 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $82 −$64 -79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $259 +$13 +5%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 −$2 -27%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -44%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $9 +$29 +330%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +28%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$4 -48%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$7 -45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$26 -55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -14%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $139 +$74 +53%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -93%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$5 -25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +113%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 +$171 +342%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $132 −$132 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $207 56m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $198 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $184 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $184 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 16¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $18 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $161 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 50¢ $161 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $247 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $247 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $218 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $110 19h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $218 21h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 96¢ $211 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $211 21h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 21h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $191 22h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 9¢ $17 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $82 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $4 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $6 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $259 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.21 · official $194.46 (match) · 137 history records