Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B8 0xb866…977f sports 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 268d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$15,378 (+2%) realized +$15,200 · open +$178
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate56%97W / 75L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$5,220per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1,056est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5,654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$295
7 days+$2,608
14 days+$3,372
30 days−$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% +$6,836
sports 5% +$3,068
other 3% +$3,926
economics 1% +$997
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% −$66
politics 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +7.0% -3.2% 51% 43% -2.7%
≤30d 65 +29.3% +17.0% 45% 34% -10.2%
≤90d 95 +39.9% +26.6% 49% 34% -7.9%
all 172 +23.3% +11.6% 56% 28% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.6% 28% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here +0.9% 19% -17.0%
15% -8.8% 15% -25.0%
20% -17.8% 10% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$1,825) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$288 vs −$191 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$5,654
Realized+$15,200
Unrealized+$178
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses97 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$1,056
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage268d
Avg bet$5,220
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $5,476 $5,654 +$178 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $589 −$311 -53%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $430 +$570 +133%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $290 −$95 -33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $664 −$582 -88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,192 +$237 +20%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $104 +$6 +5%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $328 +$83 +25%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $992 +$383 +39%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $143 −$14 -10%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $340 +$190 +56%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $39 −$3 -7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $133 +$211 +159%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,978 +$668 +34%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $67 +$33 +49%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $75 −$12 -16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,882 −$1,882 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,460 +$3,240 +132%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $790 −$187 -24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $840 +$119 +14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $31 −$5 -16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $163 −$48 -30%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $620 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 −$38 -64%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $260 +$173 +66%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 20 $15,257 +$124 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $3,296 −$554 -17%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $640 −$250 -39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $820 +$608 +74%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $80 +$283 +354%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 $0 -3%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $140 −$121 -86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $64 +$17 +26%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $939 +$33 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $313 −$86 -28%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $563 +$30 +5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $417 −$104 -25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$79 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -88%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 17¢ $279 15m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $126 22m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $385 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $34 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 3h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $195 22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $290 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $82 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $430 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $570 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $880 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 62¢ $429 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $76 26h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $110 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $86 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,654.08 · official $5,654.08 (match) · 2151 history records