Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B8 0xb868…a94e sports 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 571d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,157 (-18%) realized −$3,157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%45W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$431
7 days−$1,527
14 days−$1,527
30 days−$2,018
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$2,965
other 18% −$761
crypto 8% −$211
world 7% +$185
politics 3% −$154
culture 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -20.8% -28.3% 50% 50% -39.5%
≤30d 16 -30.6% -37.2% 44% 44% -45.5%
≤90d 34 -35.6% -41.8% 41% 41% -46.3%
all 119 -22.2% -29.6% 38% 37% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 37% -30.9%
10% -36.3% 34% -37.5%
15% -42.5% 31% -43.6%
20% -48.1% 28% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$126 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

571d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses45 / 74
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage571d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $119 −$62 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $77 +$42 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $308 −$232 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$93 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $305 +$87 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $205 +$112 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $119 +$84 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $696 −$692 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $624 +$73 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $527 +$97 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $224 +$302 +135%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,103 −$1,097 -99%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $514 −$275 -54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $219 −$215 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $144 −$142 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $115 +$30 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $57 −$56 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Apr 26 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $115 −$113 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $89 −$88 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $58 +$32 +55%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $114 −$112 -98%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $291 −$288 -99%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $210 +$81 +38%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $114 +$96 +84%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 11 $114 −$112 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $68 −$66 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $192 −$192 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price (Welterweight, Main Car Mar 29 $173 +$19 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel Mar 29 $129 +$44 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Mar 29 $56 +$73 +130%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff Mar 28 $56 −$56 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Miami Open: Arthur Cazaux vs Tomas Barrios Mar 21 $114 −$114 -100%
Miami Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taylor Fritz Mar 21 $81 +$33 +41%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Keyd (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South Mar 21 $56 +$25 +44%
Miami Open: Alexander Bublik vs Matteo Berrettini Mar 20 $357 −$357 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 20 $156 +$220 +141%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte Mar 20 $56 +$100 +178%
Bruins vs. Devils Mar 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Flames vs. Red Wings Mar 16 $238 −$238 -100%
Miami Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Thea Frodin Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Miami Open, Qualification: Cristian Garin vs Liam Draxl Mar 16 $156 +$182 +117%
Miami Open, Qualification: Jay Clarke vs Shintaro Mochizuki Mar 16 $56 +$100 +178%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $323 −$323 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 15 $412 +$162 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $392 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $317 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $203 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records