Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb869…7f80 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate72%29W / 11L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$761
sports 7% −$134
other 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.1% -5.8% 72% 55% +2.7%
≤30d 40 +4.1% -5.8% 72% 55% +2.7%
≤90d 40 +4.1% -5.8% 72% 55% +2.7%
all 40 +4.1% -5.8% 72% 55% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 55% +2.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 42% -7.1%
15% -23.1% 28% -16.1%
20% -30.6% 15% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$30 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses29 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage4d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $244 +$75 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $287 −$34 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $223 +$55 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $219 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $177 +$45 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $152 +$25 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $134 +$17 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $92 +$42 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $536 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $485 +$51 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $375 +$161 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $264 +$112 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $229 +$49 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $138 +$76 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $133 +$4 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $131 +$4 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $92 +$31 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$30 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -76%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$6 +154%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$2 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$24 -92%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $188 −$185 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $148 +$40 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $115 +$77 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records