Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb86a…396d crypto 786 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,512 (+12%) realized +$1,525 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +109% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip
Net edge+61%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%462W / 597L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day80.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+89.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 320 +242.6% +209.9% 33% 33% -22.2%
≤30d 610 +133.9% +111.6% 39% 35% -14.8%
≤90d 1059 +109.0% +89.1% 44% 35% -9.4%
all 1059 +109.0% +89.1% 44% 35% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +89.1% 35% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here +71.0% 28% -18.1%
15% +54.5% 24% -26.0%
20% +39.3% 21% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +109% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late +153% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$1,525
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses462 / 597
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1059 / 786
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day80.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1059 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 63¢ 47¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 483 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 +$24 +9988%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$6 +983%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$5 -16708%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$18 -3022%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $0 +$2 +2032%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $0 +$3 +700%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$2 -341%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$5 -11767%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $0 +$2 +369%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$7 -9006%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$9 -8565%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $0 +$7 +14218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$26 -266899%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$7 -2078%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$22 -314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$4 +424%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$2 -1061%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $0 −$7 -4306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$5 +695%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $0 +$1 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$2 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$12 -218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$8 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$34 -5995%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $0 +$4 +1143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $0 −$5 -1200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $0 −$5 -2494%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $0 −$5 -2592%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $0 −$14 -9612%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$19 -4194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $0 +$1 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $0 +$3 +3369%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$4 -3622%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $0 +$16 +84645%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $0 +$93 +31271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $0 −$5 -1202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $0 +$1 +1217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $0 −$2 -796%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $0 −$6 -2555%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $0 +$1 +5602%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $45 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $45 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $35 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $22 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $24 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $35 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $40 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $37 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $36 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.13 · official $34.37 · 3500 history records