Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B8 0xb86b…aabf crypto 535 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$593 (-9%) realized −$523 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%278W / 235L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$490
7 days−$1,080
14 days−$967
30 days−$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$219
sports 28% −$175
weather 13% −$67
other 5% −$27
politics 3% −$72
tech 1% −$20
world 0% −$3
finance 0% −$14
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 296 -31.4% -37.9% 38% 29% -36.1%
≤30d 506 -5.6% -14.6% 54% 42% -17.0%
≤90d 513 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 42% -17.1%
all 513 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 42% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 42% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 33% -25.0%
15% -30.3% 24% -32.3%
20% -37.1% 16% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$523
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses278 / 235
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions22
Markets (closed)513 / 535
History coverage36d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 513 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump post "Knicks" on Truth Social this week? Yes 51¢ 26¢ $103 $53 −$50 (-48%)
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 96¢ 92¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 98¢ 93¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will "Middle East" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 99¢ 92¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will "Disney" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 97¢ 88¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will "Cuba" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 97¢ 86¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 97¢ 86¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will "Microsoft" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 98¢ 86¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will "Hollywood" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 99¢ 86¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will "Sydney" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 97¢ 76¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will "Inflation" be in the headlines this week? Yes 64¢ 40¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-38%)
Will "Doctor Banner" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will "Tesla" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 99¢ 80¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will "Mamdani" be in the headlines this week? Yes 58¢ 28¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Will Trump say "Regarded" in June? Yes 70¢ 46¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-35%)
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Finals? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will "Prowler" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Finals? No 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$37 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$18 +168%
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$54 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$48 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$21 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$16 +173%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $255 −$90 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 17 $6 +$11 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $55 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +25%
Will "Reform" be in the headlines this week? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 −$20 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $13 +$3 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $13 +$4 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $77 +$38 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 −$13 -51%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 +$1 +21%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 +$4 +55%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $12 +$28 +231%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $555 −$539 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $16 +$1 +4%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $20 +$11 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $255 +$19 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Team Weibo (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $19 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 1h
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will "Middle East" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of th BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will "Hollywood" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will "Tesla" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY No 99¢ $4 2h
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.54 · official $167.64 (match) · 1752 history records