Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb86b…fa0d other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$5 (-10%) realized −$12 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$2
other 29% −$2
crypto 29% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-78.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -76.1% -78.3% 0% 0% -60.2%
≤30d 4 -76.1% -78.3% 0% 0% -60.2%
≤90d 4 -76.1% -78.3% 0% 0% -60.2%
all 4 -76.1% -78.3% 0% 0% -60.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.3% 0% -60.2%
10% -80.4% 0% -64.0%
15% -82.3% 0% -67.5%
20% -84.0% 0% -70.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 42¢ 92¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+118%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Yes 14¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.56 · official $24.56 (match) · 12 history records