Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B8 0xb86c…b76f sports 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,063 (+5%) realized +$1,067 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%100W / 74L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$178est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$851now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$786
14 days+$1,285
30 days+$1,205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$51
other 21% +$1,046
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +0.5% -9.0% 59% 59% -1.4%
≤30d 137 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 59% -3.3%
≤90d 174 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 55% -4.1%
all 174 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 55% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 55% -4.1%
10% -19.3% 50% -13.3%
15% -27.1% 36% -21.7%
20% -34.3% 20% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$71 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$851
Realized+$1,067
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses100 / 74
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions3
Markets (closed)174 / 181
History coverage50d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 75¢ 74¢ $410 $404 −$6 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Tommy Paul 76¢ 76¢ $266 $264 −$2 (-1%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Ben Shelton 78¢ 80¢ $179 $183 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $202 −$134 -66%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $167 +$63 +38%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 +$118 +58%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $158 +$62 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $179 +$131 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $155 −$153 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $158 −$156 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $315 +$85 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $240 −$238 -99%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $183 +$47 +26%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $160 +$150 +93%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $142 +$118 +83%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $125 −$122 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $182 +$138 +76%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $158 −$158 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $172 +$68 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $163 +$57 +35%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $569 +$531 +93%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $133 −$133 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Jun 15 $176 +$280 +159%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $197 +$113 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06 Jun 15 $24 +$38 +154%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $167 −$52 -31%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $227 −$132 -58%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $117 −$117 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $140 −$140 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $163 −$163 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $131 −$120 -91%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $151 +$35 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $142 +$39 +27%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $204 +$81 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $130 +$80 +61%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) Jun 13 $98 +$42 +42%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $157 +$153 +97%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $102 +$38 +38%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $86 −$86 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 13 $136 −$136 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $328 +$287 +88%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $167 +$50 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $84 +$66 +79%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $92 +$58 +64%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $28 +$4 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $159 +$51 +32%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $198 +$90 +46%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $153 +$107 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $376 +$157 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 26¢ $68 5m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 75¢ $202 56m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $181 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 76¢ $84 4h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $242 4h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 76¢ $184 4h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 74¢ $172 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $155 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $158 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $240 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $167 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $158 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $159 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $43 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $156 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $179 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 79¢ $159 23h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $183 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $125 41h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $160 43h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 56¢ $182 2d
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 71¢ $172 2d
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 74¢ $112 2d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 54¢ $142 2d
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 71¢ $158 2d
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 74¢ $28 2d
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 74¢ $22 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 19¢ $101 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 20¢ $30 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06 BUY 39¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $851.34 · official $855.94 (match) · 427 history records