Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb86c…3aab other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$6
other 20% +$5
politics 14% $0
tech 10% +$1
culture 7% $0
sports 6% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 12 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.6%
all 35 +2.1% -7.6% 37% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 3% -9.5%
10% -16.5% 3% -18.2%
15% -24.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage328d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 80¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $77 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $79 −$4 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $84 −$3 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 -11%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $41 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $19 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $6 +$5 +80%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8? Aug 02 $16 $0 -2%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $7 $0 +1%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 31 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Jul 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $23 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $23 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $20 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $14 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $33 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $37 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $41 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $35 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $2 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $12 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $26 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $37 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $9 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $30 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.60 · official $33.60 (match) · 140 history records