Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B8 0xb86d…3c53 sports 581 markets active 3h ago coverage 124d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,483 (-15%) realized −$11,401 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%224W / 353L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$657est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 124d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$9,487
crypto 9% −$569
other 7% −$896
politics 1% +$8,404
world 1% +$332
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -23.3% -30.6% 31% 31% -18.1%
≤30d 127 +15.0% +4.0% 36% 36% +32.2%
≤90d 503 -16.9% -24.8% 34% 33% -25.7%
all 577 -8.1% -16.9% 39% 37% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 37% -12.1%
10% -24.8% 36% -20.5%
15% -32.1% 34% -28.2%
20% -38.7% 30% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$113 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$11,401
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses224 / 353
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$657
Open positions4
Markets (closed)577 / 581
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$130
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 577 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $104 $17 −$87 (-84%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $112 +$88 +78%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $323 −$321 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $262 +$259 +99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $56 −$55 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $98 −$96 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $97 −$95 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $123 −$120 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $587 −$587 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,161 +$2,473 +213%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $296 +$373 +126%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $308 −$308 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $132 +$68 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,083 −$1,166 -56%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $353 +$727 +206%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $373 +$127 +34%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 14 $135 −$135 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $495 −$495 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 +$287 +474%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $162 +$900 +554%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$41 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$3 +17%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $165 +$250 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$30 +96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $116 +$184 +158%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $102 +$121 +119%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 100¢ $200 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 20¢ $20 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 24¢ $98 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 35¢ $105 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 50¢ $20 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 50¢ $80 3h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $76 3h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $17 3h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $3 3h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $17 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $59 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 11¢ $56 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $102 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $102 8h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 32¢ $98 13h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 19¢ $97 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 24¢ $123 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $3,634 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $100 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $102 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $100 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $230 21h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 7¢ $51 21h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $670 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $89 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $67 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $46 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $49 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $230 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.63 · official $51.63 (match) · 3500 history records