Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb871…1cb8 sports 699 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+0%) realized +$41 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate71%496W / 198L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$2
14 days+$19
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$267
sports 6% −$101
crypto 4% −$269
tech 4% −$2
weather 2% +$2
culture 1% −$22
world 0% −$5
politics 0% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +8.7% -1.7% 58% 48% -9.6%
≤30d 277 -7.3% -16.1% 49% 35% -13.7%
≤90d 398 -3.6% -12.8% 64% 28% -10.8%
all 694 -1.8% -11.1% 71% 16% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 16% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 13% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 11% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses496 / 198
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions5
Markets (closed)694 / 699
History coverage186d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 694 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Under 53¢ 65¢ $48 $59 +$11 (+23%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$3 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $49 +$9 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$31 +65%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $17 +$1 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 +$12 +41%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$16 -31%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $47 +$64 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 −$8 -17%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 +$24 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +83%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $60 +$31 +53%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$9 +19%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$3 -17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $47 −$8 -16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$19 +193%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$4 +44%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $47 +$7 +16%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $49 +$6 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 +$8 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$35 -74%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +56%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $38 +$14 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$2 -4%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $49 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 96¢ $62 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $23 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $46 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $23 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $48 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $47 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 56¢ $12 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $48 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 36¢ $9 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 37¢ $0 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 36¢ $11 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 36¢ $2 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 58¢ $17 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 58¢ $17 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $17 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 58¢ $17 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $41 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $47 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $49 9h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $59 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $15 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $16 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.74 · official $201.21 (match) · 1892 history records