Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B8 0xb874…6a7b crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$75
other 6% +$1
weather 5% −$10
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -39.3% -45.1% 47% 33% -48.0%
≤30d 15 -39.3% -45.1% 47% 33% -48.0%
≤90d 15 -39.3% -45.1% 47% 33% -48.0%
all 15 -39.3% -45.1% 47% 33% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.1% 33% -48.0%
10% -50.3% 20% -53.0%
15% -55.1% 7% -57.5%
20% -59.5% 0% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)15 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$3 -30%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 27? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.87 · official $6.87 (match) · 44 history records