Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B8 0xb875…f9e9 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate68%13W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$86per market

Trades / day63.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-19.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-10.4%	-19.0%	68%	53%	-11.8%
≤30d	19	-10.4%	-19.0%	68%	53%	-11.8%
≤90d	19	-10.4%	-19.0%	68%	53%	-11.8%
all	19	-10.4%	-19.0%	68%	53%	-11.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover63.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-19.0%	53%	-11.8%
10% ← realistic here	-26.7%	26%	-20.3%
15%	-33.8%	11%	-28.0%
20%	-40.3%	0%	-35.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 34% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

15% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -7% → late -13% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$49 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.86 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses13 / 6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$86

Trades / day63.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 26	$83	+$10	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 26	$40	+$3	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 26	$72	+$10	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 26	$61	+$13	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 26	$61	+$15	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 26	$71	−$70	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 26	$31	−$30	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 26	$32	−$26	-81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 26	$152	+$33	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 26	$68	+$29	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 26	$121	+$19	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 26	$133	−$96	-72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 26	$55	+$6	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 26	$93	+$24	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 26	$52	−$50	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 26	$128	+$53	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 26	$103	−$21	-20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 26	$227	+$22	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 26	$52	+$13	+25%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	SELL Down	94¢	$43	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$40	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$10	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$5	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$15	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	SELL Up	47¢	$51	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$52	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	SELL Up	65¢	$82	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$72	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	SELL Down	2¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	SELL Up	6¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$97	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$68	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	SELL Down	19¢	$37	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$20	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records