Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B8 0xb875…ac87 sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,414 (+2%) realized +$1,414 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 48L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,139per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1,427est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$1,886
14 days+$5,509
30 days−$1,963
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$8,445
other 16% +$8,919
world 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.7% -8.0% 36% 36% -1.1%
≤30d 73 +1.7% -8.0% 37% 37% -11.7%
≤90d 77 +1.3% -8.4% 38% 38% -8.9%
all 77 +1.3% -8.4% 38% 38% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 38% -8.9%
10% -17.1% 38% -17.7%
15% -25.2% 38% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 36% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,255) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,252 vs −$747 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,414
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1,427
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage40d
Avg bet$1,139
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $392 −$35 -9%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $4,751 +$12,076 +254%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $7,124 −$7,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $508 +$579 +114%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $216 +$91 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $528 +$500 +95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $712 −$700 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $337 −$330 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,282 −$106 -8%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $8,284 −$3,039 -37%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,255 +$1,195 +95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $458 +$667 +146%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,567 −$83 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $709 +$563 +79%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $409 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $387 +$668 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $488 +$603 +124%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $458 +$696 +152%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,518 +$941 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $458 −$26 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,238 +$636 +51%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,446 −$135 -9%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $304 +$278 +91%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $508 −$258 -51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $62 +$122 +197%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $195 +$924 +475%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $637 +$395 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $585 −$265 -45%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $995 −$380 -38%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $687 −$680 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $357 −$350 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $528 −$520 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $478 −$470 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5,256 −$5,182 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $458 +$588 +129%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $993 −$977 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $468 −$70 -15%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,133 −$1,500 -70%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $428 −$420 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3,617 −$122 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,065 −$66 -3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $4,522 −$2,107 -47%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3,067 −$3,030 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $458 −$450 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,728 +$1,425 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $570 +$604 +106%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $809 +$441 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 35¢ $357 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 21¢ $90 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Ar BUY 4¢ $100 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026- BUY 4¢ $100 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $392 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $2,035 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $5,088 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 67¢ $307 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 46¢ $216 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $508 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $712 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 32¢ $337 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $58 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $423 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $109 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $109 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $68 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $277 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $100 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $1,282 6d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $541 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $528 6d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,609 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $282.18 · 255 history records