Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb877…f45e world 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 390d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$11
other 21% +$1
politics 18% $0
sports 11% +$6
economics 4% $0
finance 3% +$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -11.3% -19.7% 0% 0% -19.7%
≤30d 16 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 59 +4.0% -5.9% 37% 3% -9.5%
all 75 +1.4% -8.3% 43% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.0% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -32.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

390d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage390d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $40 −$4 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $72 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $80 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $58 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $110 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $12 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $79 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $75 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $74 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $1 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $72 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $84 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $10 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $79 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 -19%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $37 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $35 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $145 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $71 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $2 $0 +5%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $71 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri Mar 31 $35 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Mar 29 $38 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $35 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $15 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $18 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $16 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $16 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $12 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $24 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $3 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $32 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $40 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $40 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $21 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $21 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $34 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $37 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.38 · official $32.05 (match) · 315 history records