Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb878…226f
crypto · 1521 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$157 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$158 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$4
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses834 / 686
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1520 / 1521
Avg bet$8
Trades / day127.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1520 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$194
14 days+$176
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 45¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$8 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$4 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $8 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 748 +6.7% -3.5% 56% 53% -6.6%
≤30d 1520 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 52% -8.4%
≤90d 1520 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 52% -8.4%
all 1520 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 52% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover127.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 52% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 49% -17.1%
15% -23.2% 42% -25.1%
20% -30.7% 34% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.50 · official $4.62 (match) · 3500 history records