Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb879…aa96 weather 146 markets active 4d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$119 (-7%) realized −$118 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%70W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$26
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% −$132
sports 22% +$61
other 12% −$11
crypto 5% −$47
world 2% +$8
finance 1% −$6
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +23.9% +12.1% 50% 50% -38.0%
≤30d 67 +8.5% -1.8% 49% 48% -13.3%
≤90d 106 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 41% -43.0%
all 145 -0.7% -10.2% 48% 46% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 46% -16.2%
10% -18.8% 44% -24.3%
15% -26.6% 39% -31.6%
20% -33.8% 34% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses70 / 75
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage104d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $4 +$8 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 28? May 29 $2 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28? May 29 $3 +$2 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 28? May 29 $2 +$3 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 28? May 29 $2 +$4 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 29? May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 29? May 28 $3 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 29? May 28 $3 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 29? May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $3 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $2 +$2 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 27? May 27 $3 +$5 +209%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 27? May 27 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 27? May 27 $3 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 27? May 27 $3 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 27? May 27 $3 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $2 +$2 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 26? May 27 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 26? May 26 $1 +$1 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 26? May 26 $2 +$3 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 25? May 26 $3 +$2 +95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? May 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $3 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 25? May 25 $3 +$4 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 25? May 25 $2 +$2 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $2 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $3 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 25? May 25 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 25? May 25 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 25? May 25 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 25? May 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 24? May 24 $20 +$8 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $2 +$5 +221%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $2 +$4 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 24? May 24 $2 +$3 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $7 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 17d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 29? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 18d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 29? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 19d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 29? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 19d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 29? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 19d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 29? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 19d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 29? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 19d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 28? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 20d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 28? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 20d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 28? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 20d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 28? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 20d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 20d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 28? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 20d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 20d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 27? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.74 · official $2.74 (match) · 331 history records