Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:38:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb87c…c4a7 world 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$11
politics 15% +$1
other 13% −$2
sports 8% −$6
economics 7% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 20% -11.1%
≤30d 35 -3.1% -12.3% 29% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 84 +21.1% +9.6% 35% 5% -9.8%
all 92 +18.2% +6.9% 37% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 5% -10.0%
10% -3.3% 3% -18.6%
15% -12.7% 1% -26.5%
20% -21.2% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 58
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage533d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 35¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 25 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $18 −$7 -40%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $14 +$3 +18%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $38 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $7 +$2 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $47 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $36 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $162 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $24 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $117 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $53 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $40 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $74 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $54 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $65 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $80 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $7 −$1 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $94 −$5 -6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $3 −$1 -31%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $65 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $46 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $86 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $81 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $3 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $27 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 41h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 41h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 41h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 41h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $15 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $4 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 10¢ $4 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $7 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $7 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $36 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.44 · official $3.00 · 433 history records