Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb87c…f91e crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$64 (+15%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$9
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$59
other 30% +$2
tech 5% +$1
sports 5% +$15
politics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -13.8% -22.1% 38% 31% -15.6%
≤30d 55 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 38% -12.6%
≤90d 60 -9.8% -18.4% 43% 35% -19.8%
all 60 -9.8% -18.4% 43% 35% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 35% -19.8%
10% -26.2% 28% -27.4%
15% -33.3% 22% -34.4%
20% -39.9% 18% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage68d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +25%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$5 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$27 +141%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +59%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 Jun 09 $2 $0 -16%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 09 $2 $0 -22%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $2 −$1 -54%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 27 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 27 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 27 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 27 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 27 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 27 $7 −$6 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 25 $6 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 25 $5 +$6 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 25 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $22 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $5 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 43h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $8 44h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $3 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records