trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 14 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 20 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 25 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 29 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 08 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 25 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 19 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | Nov 24 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 27 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 19 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Sep 19 | $0 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? | Aug 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? | Jul 09 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| West Ham United wins the Premier League? | Jul 06 | $0 | $0 | -17% |
| Bournemouth wins the Premier League? | Jun 05 | $71 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 12 | $0 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? | May 12 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 26 | $3 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? | Jan 07 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? | Dec 04 | $647 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? | Dec 04 | $88 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 22 | -5.0% | -14.0% | 5% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -22.3% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -29.8% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -36.6% | 0% | -33.3% |