Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B8 0xb87e…e108 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$166 (+12%) realized +$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day84.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$332
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+53.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +70.0% +53.8% 43% 43% +13.2%
≤30d 28 +70.0% +53.8% 43% 43% +13.2%
≤90d 28 +70.0% +53.8% 43% 43% +13.2%
all 28 +70.0% +53.8% 43% 43% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +53.8% 43% +13.2%
10% ← realistic here +39.1% 43% +2.4%
15% +25.6% 39% -7.5%
20% +13.3% 39% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +109% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$44 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$58 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $77 +$56 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$50 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $127 −$125 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $63 +$174 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$37 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $69 −$66 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$97 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$437 +1639%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$6 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $35 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $102 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $32 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records