Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb87f…a783 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$102 (+2%) realized +$132 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate16%5W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$45
14 days−$46
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$4
crypto 31% +$2
sports 7% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -75.5% -77.9% 9% 9% -12.1%
≤30d 32 -50.6% -55.3% 16% 9% -8.1%
≤90d 32 -50.6% -55.3% 16% 9% -8.1%
all 32 -50.6% -55.3% 16% 9% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.3% 9% -8.1%
10% -59.6% 9% -16.9%
15% -63.5% 9% -24.9%
20% -67.1% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$3 · ×13.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$132
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses5 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage23d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $17 −$17 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $15 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $840 −$1 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $324 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $322 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $363 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $355 +$145 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $467 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $440 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 05 $560 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 26h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $17 43h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $15 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $21 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $325 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $325 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 76 history records