Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B8 0xb881…20a1 other 593 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,491 (-3%) realized −$4,491 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%307W / 286L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$234est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days−$130
14 days−$65
30 days−$2,171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$793
sports 22% −$3,637
crypto 6% −$1,826
weather 3% −$1,138
world 1% +$814
politics 0% −$140
culture 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.0% -17.7% 65% 59% -13.2%
≤30d 40 -21.7% -29.1% 52% 48% -27.9%
≤90d 257 -3.4% -12.6% 55% 49% -13.5%
all 593 -3.7% -12.9% 52% 44% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 44% -12.2%
10% -21.2% 36% -20.6%
15% -28.8% 27% -28.3%
20% -35.8% 19% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$149 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,491
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses307 / 286
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$234
Open positions0
Markets (closed)593 / 593
History coverage148d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 593 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $281 +$51 +18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $201 −$76 -38%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $202 +$76 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $95 +$14 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $302 +$83 +27%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$49 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $48 +$18 +38%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $478 +$71 +15%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$53 +26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$42 +42%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $70 +$9 +13%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $341 +$33 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $105 −$1 -1%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $86 −$86 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $203 −$163 -80%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $201 +$65 +32%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $101 +$51 +50%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $71 −$71 -100%
CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $202 +$131 +64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $506 −$506 -100%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 30 $198 −$161 -81%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $501 +$38 +8%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: Both Teams to Score May 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 May 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 27 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $910 −$910 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $504 +$200 +40%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $504 +$171 +34%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $403 +$116 +29%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $283 +$123 +43%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 21 $505 −$505 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $302 −$49 -16%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 19 $505 +$252 +50%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $608 −$608 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1,003 +$119 +12%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 May 18 $1,003 −$737 -73%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $554 −$356 -64%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $302 +$105 +35%
Will Hannover 96 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw? May 17 $203 +$152 +75%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,005 +$213 +21%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) May 16 $219 +$131 +60%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $333 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 50¢ $126 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $201 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $281 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $202 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $109 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $95 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL 94¢ $385 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY 73¢ $302 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $201 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 72¢ $48 3d
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $549 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $478 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $256 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY 70¢ $101 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $70 4d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 91¢ $341 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 9¢ $41 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $203 6d
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $201 11d
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $86 16d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 99¢ $585 17d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 79¢ $469 17d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 25¢ $71 17d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 65¢ $188 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1524 history records