Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb886…81b3
politics · 59 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$8,749 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$165 · open −$12,354
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$175,305
Realized+$165
Unrealized−$12,354
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions164
Markets (closed)6 / 59
History coverage6d
Avg bet$605
Trades / day549.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 164 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$165
14 days+$165
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $45,208 $34,958 −$10,250 (-23%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $18,946 $22,370 +$3,425 (+18%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 18¢ $5,362 $13,682 +$8,320 (+155%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $15,785 $11,440 −$4,345 (-28%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $9,443 $9,141 −$302 (-3%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 37¢ 30¢ $11,221 $9,052 −$2,169 (-19%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes $8,769 $8,847 +$78 (+1%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $4,419 $8,444 +$4,025 (+91%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $9,001 $7,946 −$1,056 (-12%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $4,954 $4,490 −$463 (-9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $4,551 $4,439 −$112 (-2%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5,362 $4,101 −$1,260 (-24%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2,425 $2,402 −$23 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes $3,871 $2,236 −$1,634 (-42%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2,136 $2,061 −$74 (-3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes $5,315 $1,622 −$3,693 (-69%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 19¢ 18¢ $1,452 $1,431 −$21 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1,331 $1,371 +$40 (+3%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1,591 $1,203 −$387 (-24%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 69¢ $975 $1,100 +$125 (+13%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $720 $1,079 +$360 (+50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,014 $1,059 +$44 (+4%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $1,082 $1,033 −$49 (-5%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $1,212 $970 −$242 (-20%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $733 $917 +$183 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 12 $83 +$1,947 +2339%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $1,730 −$1,730 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,022 −$122 -12%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 07 $89 +$60 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% −$34
politics 20% +$114
world 16% −$14,142
finance 1% −$25
culture 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 4m
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $0 5m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 5m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $71 6m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 11m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $4 12m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $4 12m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $4 12m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 14m
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 14m
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes $1 14m
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes $0 14m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 15m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 17m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 17m
Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes $0 19m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 20m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 20m
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 20m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 21m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 21m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 25m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 26m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 26m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 27m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 27m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+272.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +311.1% +272.0% 50% 50% -13.0%
≤30d 6 +311.1% +272.0% 50% 50% -13.0%
≤90d 6 +311.1% +272.0% 50% 50% -13.0%
all 6 +311.1% +272.0% 50% 50% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover549.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +272.0% 50% -13.0%
10% +236.4% 33% -21.3%
15% ← realistic here +203.9% 33% -28.9%
20% +174.1% 33% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175,304.68 · official $175,336.79 (match) · 3500 history records