Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb88b…19d9 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7,868 (+12%) realized +$7,893 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%17W / 7L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$2,708per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Fees−$397est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,975now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$6,418
sports 36% +$4,802
other 4% +$1,133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +17.6% +6.4% 71% 71% +8.7%
≤30d 24 +17.6% +6.4% 71% 71% +8.7%
≤90d 24 +17.6% +6.4% 71% 71% +8.7%
all 24 +17.6% +6.4% 71% 71% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 71% +8.7%
10% -3.8% 62% -1.7%
15% ← realistic here -13.1% 54% -11.2%
20% -21.6% 29% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$3,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,391 vs −$1,610 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2,975
Realized+$7,893
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$397
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2,708
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 60¢ 60¢ $3,000 $2,975 −$25 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $3,581 −$3,500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $2,564 +$1,384 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $2,126 +$2,004 +94%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $3,039 −$130 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $5,106 +$2,078 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $4,076 +$1,373 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $2,253 +$1,871 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $3,094 −$3,000 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $2,728 −$2,693 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $3,574 +$1,434 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $1,517 +$260 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $3,073 +$1,553 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,544 +$1,687 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $6,492 +$1,252 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $1,606 +$643 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,480 +$1,492 +101%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,801 +$3,220 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $3,563 +$1,142 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $2,455 +$1,123 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $1,002 −$970 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $599 −$580 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $928 −$397 -43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,453 +$664 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $985 +$469 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $3,036 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1,053 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $648 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $633 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $638 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $610 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1,023 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1,079 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $462 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 59¢ $2,963 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $309 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,975.00 · official $2,975.00 (match) · 181 history records