Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B8 0xb88c…7d3f weather 1042 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$382 (+2%) realized +$382 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate90%928W / 100L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$13
14 days+$28
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$109
crypto 11% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 145 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 547 +0.3% -9.3% 93% 19% -8.7%
all 1028 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 21% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 21% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$382
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses928 / 100
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1028 / 1042
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1028 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29? No 100¢ 99¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 29? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 29? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 29? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 29? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 29? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $63 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $173 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $117 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 25? Jun 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on June 25 Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 24? Jun 23 $57 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 24? Jun 23 $27 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 23? Jun 22 $48 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 23? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 24? Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 22? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 18 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 29 BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $65 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $90 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $85 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $28 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 37h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $30 37h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $30 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $15 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 39h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 39h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $24 39h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $30 39h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $90 39h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $60 39h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $30 39h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $25 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.23 · official $268.12 · 3500 history records